AGP Executive Report

Cocoa & Climate Shock: Cocoa futures jumped nearly 10% as heavy flooding in Côte d’Ivoire disrupted access to plantations, while El Niño fears add pressure for a drier, hotter outlook later in the year. Farmgate Pressure: Even with improving rainfall in key cocoa zones, Reuters reports the government cut the fixed price paid to farmers by 57% for the mid-crop, squeezing incomes as weather stays uneven. Energy & Environment: Eni and partners approved Baleine Phase 3 in Côte d’Ivoire, with a new FPSO and plans to boost oil and gas output—raising the stakes for how environmental targets are managed as production expands. Mining Approvals: Aurum Resources secured three EIESA environmental approval certificates for its Boundiali gold project, clearing a key legal hurdle after a year of environmental and social assessment across 572 km². Green Finance Push: The AfDB backed a 450m-euro credit guarantee for Morocco’s OCP to fund emissions cuts, renewables, and more efficient water and energy use—an example of how climate-smart farming finance is moving.

Cocoa Climate Shock: Cocoa futures jumped nearly 10% as Ivory Coast flooding cut farmers’ access to plantations, while El Niño fears raise the odds of drier, hotter conditions that could hit West Africa’s next harvest. Farmgate Pressure: Even with improving rainfall in some cocoa zones, Reuters reports the government cut the fixed farmgate price by 57% for the mid-crop, squeezing producers as prices swing. Energy & Environment: Eni and partners approved Baleine Phase 3 in Côte d’Ivoire, boosting oil and gas output and adding a new FPSO, with claims of improved safety and lower environmental impact. Mining Approvals: Aurum Resources secured three EIESA environmental certificates for its Boundiali Gold Project, clearing a key legal hurdle toward mining licences after a year of impact assessment and community consultation. Green Finance Focus: At AfDB’s annual meetings in Brazzaville, delegates pushed to mobilise development financing at scale—aiming to close a $400bn annual gap for climate adaptation, energy and infrastructure.

Energy Deal in Abidjan: Eni and partners Petroci and Vitol have approved the final investment decision for Baleine Phase 3, a reported $4bn offshore expansion that would lift oil output from 60,000 to 150,000 bpd and gas from 80 to 200 mmcf/d, with all gas routed to Côte d’Ivoire’s domestic market; the project also adds a new FPSO aimed at efficiency, safety, and lower environmental impact. Cocoa Pressure, Then Hope: Cocoa production is expected to rise 10.5% in 2025/26 to 2.0–2.1m tonnes, but farmers still face a painful mid-crop price cut of 57% to 1,200 CFA/kg—while rainfall variability keeps yields unpredictable. Gold Permitting Moves Forward: Aurum Resources says Côte d’Ivoire’s environment ministry issued three environmental approval certificates for its Boundiali gold project, clearing a key step toward mining licences. Regional Climate Reality: With Africa Day’s theme on water sustainability, the week’s coverage underscores how climate stress and weak water management keep turning environmental risk into daily hardship.

Energy Deal Moves Fast: Eni and partners Petroci and Vitol have approved the final investment decision for Baleine Phase 3 off Côte d’Ivoire, a $4bn push that could lift oil from 60,000 to 150,000 barrels a day and gas from 80 to 200 million cubic feet a day, with gas routed to the domestic market to support power and industry. Cocoa Reality Check: Cocoa rains look a bit better for the mid-crop, and Côte d’Ivoire expects output to rise 10.5% in 2025/26 to 2.0–2.1m tons, but farmers still face a major price shock after a 57% cut to the mid-crop farmgate price. Mining Permitting Clears: Aurum Resources secured three environmental approval certificates for its Boundiali gold project, removing a key regulatory hurdle toward mining licences. Health Workforce Focus: Côte d’Ivoire will host a June 1–2 meeting in Abidjan to strengthen public service and health workforce development across Africa.

Offshore Energy Push: Italian giant Eni wants to speed up its $4 billion Baleine Phase 3 expansion in Côte d’Ivoire, aiming to lift output from ~60,000 to 150,000 barrels/day as crude prices improve the economics. Cocoa Recovery Watch: Côte d’Ivoire expects cocoa production to rise 10.5% in 2025/26 to 2.0–2.1 million tons, the first growth in three years, as higher prices help farmers buy fertiliser and improve plantations—though some volumes still sit unsold. Mining Permitting Milestone: Aurum Resources cleared a key step for its Boundiali gold project after Côte d’Ivoire issued three environmental approval certificates covering all three licence areas, removing a major hurdle before mining licences. Climate & Food Pressure: New reporting highlights how cocoa remains highly volatile as droughts and erratic rains hit yields, while “sustainable chocolate” can’t fix the underlying climate risk alone. Security Context: Côte d’Ivoire continues to watch jihadist threats in the north, a reminder that stability and environment policy often move together.

Cocoa Outlook: Ivory Coast says 2025/26 cocoa output should jump to 2.0–2.1 million metric tons, up 10.5%, after three years of weather hits, ageing farms and swollen shoot disease—an improvement traders had expected to be lower. Farm Economics: The CCC links the rebound to higher cocoa prices helping farmers buy more fertiliser and manage plantations better, with arrivals at the two ports already just over 1.7 million tons as of May 11. Market Tension: Even with the recovery signal, exporters still have “significant volumes” unsold on the ground, keeping pressure on how fast prices can ease. Mining & Environment: Aurum Resources cleared another step for its Boundiali gold project after Côte d’Ivoire issued three environmental approval certificates for the mining licence areas. Green Tech & Trade: In Chengdu, Sinoma’s green cement push drew diplomats from Côte d’Ivoire and others, while Africa Day’s theme spotlights water sustainability—an urgent backdrop for climate-stressed farming.

Mining Approvals Move Forward: Aurum Resources says Côte d’Ivoire’s Ministry of Environment has issued three Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (EIESA) certificates for its Boundiali Gold Project, covering the BST, BD and BM licence areas—an essential step before mining licences can be granted. The approvals follow a 12-month Category A process across 572+ km², including community consultation, a public inquiry, and review by an inter-ministerial technical committee in Abidjan, with the company calling it a “transformational milestone.” Cocoa Market Signals: At the same time, Ivory Coast expects cocoa output to rise 10.5% in 2025/26 to 2.0–2.1 million metric tons, a potential relief after years of weather and disease shocks. Climate & Heritage Watch: Separate reporting highlights Côte d’Ivoire rainforest history—new dating suggests humans lived in wet West African forests around 150,000 years ago—adding fresh value to protecting living ecosystems.

Journalists’ Safety Push: New laws are moving into action, and media groups are urging stronger protection for reporters—especially during elections—so freedom of expression doesn’t come with a price tag. Cocoa Market Whiplash: Cocoa prices bounced after recent drops, with traders pointing to short covering ahead of holidays, while Ivory Coast signals a rebound—forecasting 2.0–2.1 million tons for 2025/26—supported by better farm practices and improved arrivals. Security in the North: Côte d’Ivoire is marking 10 years since a major jihadist attack, warning that the threat still needs vigilance. Water-Energy-Food Planning: ECOWAS held a Water–Energy–Food nexus meeting in Abidjan with a gender focus, aiming to turn regional plans into operational projects. Deep Roots, New Science: Researchers report evidence of humans living in Côte d’Ivoire’s rainforest around 150,000 years ago—rewriting what we thought about early West African environments.

Chocolate Backlash: Sweet-tooth fans are pushing back online as major brands quietly cut real cocoa and lean more on sugar and fillers—blaming climate-hit harvests in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, plus recipe shifts that change taste and texture. Cocoa Outlook: Ivory Coast says production could rebound 10.5% in 2025/26 to 2.0–2.1 million tons, but prices are still pressured as inventories rise and traders watch for “unsold” volumes. Security Memory: Côte d’Ivoire marks 10 years since the Grand Bassam attack, with officials stressing stronger vigilance after AQIM claimed responsibility. Youth & Talent: Canada’s U20 squad includes Valter Sedin, with Côte d’Ivoire listed among group opponents at the Maurice Revello Tournament. Finance & Integration: Ghana’s central bank chief urges connected African capital markets—transactions should move from Accra to Abidjan or Lagos as easily as within-country. Human History: New research from Côte d’Ivoire suggests early humans lived in rainforest environments about 150,000 years ago, rewriting assumptions about where Homo sapiens could survive.

Security Watch: Côte d’Ivoire marks 10 years since the 13 March 2016 Grand Bassam attack, with AQIM claiming responsibility and courts later sentencing 11 men to death; officials say vigilance has been strengthened to prevent a repeat. Cocoa & Climate: Ivory Coast expects cocoa output to rebound 10.5% in 2025/26 to 2.0–2.1 million tons, helped by better farm practices after high prices—though markets still watch inventories and weather risk. Development Finance: At the AfDB annual meetings in Brazzaville, delegates focus on mobilising Africa’s development financing at scale amid a $400bn-a-year gap. Green Infrastructure: In Ghana, Agility Logistics Park in Tema earns EDGE Advanced certification, targeting big cuts in energy and water use. Human Story, Local Science: New research from Côte d’Ivoire suggests early humans lived in West African rainforests about 150,000 years ago, rewriting timelines of our past.

Cocoa rebound vs price pressure: Ivory Coast says cocoa output could jump 10.5% in 2025/26 to 2.0–2.1 million tons, helped by better farm practices and higher prices—yet traders warn plenty of beans still sit unsold, while global cocoa futures slid as inventories rose and the dollar strengthened. Deep rainforest history: New research from Côte d’Ivoire’s Bété I site suggests humans lived in West African rainforests about 150,000 years ago, rewriting older ideas about where early Homo sapiens could survive. Ocean governance push: A spotlight story backs African governments to shape and benefit from the UN BBNJ high-seas treaty, aiming for protected areas and fair sharing of marine genetic resources. Local climate-smart momentum: Ghana’s Tema logistics park earned EDGE Advanced green building certification, targeting big cuts in energy, water, and embodied carbon. Football, but with a twist: Nigeria’s Unity Cup squad includes Plymouth striker Owen Oseni—his Ivory Coast links add another layer for West Africa fans.

Cocoa rebound watch: Côte d’Ivoire says its 2025/26 cocoa output should jump to 2.0–2.1 million metric tons, a first big recovery after three tough years—good news for farmers and a potential pressure release for global chocolate prices. Market pressure: Even as the rebound is forecast, cocoa futures have been sliding on a stronger dollar and rising inventories, showing how fast sentiment can flip. Human history, Côte d’Ivoire in the spotlight: Scientists report evidence that early humans lived in West Africa’s rainforest around 150,000 years ago—pushing back what we thought we knew about rainforest habitation. Blue economy governance: A focus on the UN BBNJ ocean treaty is pushing African governments to shape rules for the high seas and share benefits from marine genetic resources. Green logistics: Ghana’s Agility Logistics Park in Tema earned EDGE Advanced certification, targeting major energy and water savings. Exploration leadership: Lithium Africa appointed Dr. Rachel Hampton as VP of Exploration, signaling a renewed push to find new lithium resources.

Aviation Push: Nigeria’s aviation minister Festus Keyamo says Africa can’t stay “least connected” and wants air travel treated as economic infrastructure, not a luxury, to boost cross-border trade and integration. Finance Integration: Ghana’s central bank chief Johnson Asiama urges a single, connected African financial market so payments and capital can move from Accra to Abidjan or Lagos as easily as within cities. Abidjan’s Skyline: Côte d’Ivoire’s La Tour F is nearing completion in Abidjan’s Administrative City, aiming to become Africa’s tallest building and offering a public “lantern” viewing deck. Human History, Rewritten: New Côte d’Ivoire rainforest findings suggest early humans lived in dense tropical forests about 150,000 years ago. Cocoa Pressure: Cocoa prices are sliding on signs of abundant Ivory Coast supply, even as climate fears linger. Green Logistics: Ghana’s Agility Logistics Park in Tema earned EDGE Advanced certification for major energy, water, and carbon savings.

Electric Transit Push: A new MIT Technology Review-style argument is making the case that Africa’s electrified mass transit could cut city emissions and improve everyday life fast—especially as electric vehicle costs fall by 2040, while today’s electric scooters and motorcycles are already reshaping last-mile transport. Cocoa Price Rollercoaster: Cocoa is sliding again as Ivory Coast signals bigger deliveries and inventories rise, but the drop is also helping “real chocolate” make a comeback after years of cheaper, cocoa-light alternatives. Green Logistics in Ghana: Agility Logistics Park in Tema, Ghana just earned EDGE Advanced certification, with big reported energy and water savings—proof that cleaner warehousing can scale alongside trade growth. Identity & Inclusion: At ID4Africa, speakers urged stronger legal and digital identity for refugees and stateless people, stressing that civil registration and national ID systems must work together. Ports Data Upgrade: West and Central Africa’s port operators are launching a statistician network to improve performance tracking and decision-making.

Cocoa Price Pressure: Cocoa is sliding again—ICE NY July cocoa is down about 0.9% and ICE London July down about 1.6%—as traders lean on an “abundant supplies” outlook. The latest bearish push follows Côte d’Ivoire raising its 2025/26 delivery estimate to 2.2 million metric tons (from 1.8–1.9), with farmers shipping 1.61 million tons to ports so far and inventories hitting a 1.75-year high. Climate Risk Context: The market’s earlier spike was tied to El Niño fears for West Africa, but the supply story is now dominating. Regional Water-Energy-Food Work: ECOWAS held an Abidjan meeting on the Water–Energy–Food nexus with a gender focus, aiming to turn plans into operational projects. Ports Data Push: West and Central Africa port operators are launching a statistician network to improve performance tracking and decision-making.

Urban Green Growth Watch: In Addis Ababa, foreigners say the city is changing fast—new roads, buildings, parks and landscaped corridors are reshaping daily life as Ethiopia pushes corridor development. Climate & Heritage Shock: Côte d’Ivoire research is forcing a rethink of human history: evidence suggests people lived in wet tropical rainforest around 150,000 years ago, far earlier than expected. Energy & Jobs Push: SOCAR is adding to Africa expansion after its Baleine upstream move off Côte d’Ivoire, while a new Africa Technology Conference in Abidjan (16–18 June) will spotlight gas innovation for a “resilient and sustainable” energy sector. Ports Need Better Data: West and Central Africa’s ports group PMAWCA is launching a statistician network to track performance like turnaround and berthing times. Digital Identity Momentum: ID4Africa discussions in Abidjan again stress legal identity for refugees and stateless people, and Ethiopia showcased its Fayda ID system. Aviation Reality Check: Africa’s passenger boom is outpacing profits, keeping tourism and hospitality on edge.